Look back
How Bitcoin's price behaved around past announcements: whether it moved more than usual, for how long, and in which direction. These are reactions, not causes.
Fed rate decisions
Each announcement
How these numbers are measured
- Start: the Coinbase BTC-USD price at the moment of the announcement (the Fed's 2:00 PM ET statement, or 8:30 AM ET for CPI and jobs reports).
- Normal week: each hour after an announcement is compared with the same hour, on the same weekday, in up to 10 earlier weeks that had no tracked announcement within 2 days (at least 3 such weeks are required). This matters because some hours, like Monday mornings in the US, are busier than others on any week.
- Reliable: an hour counts as busier than normal only when so many announcements were busier than their normal week that a coin flip would almost never produce it (a two-sided sign test at 0.5% per hour, because 11 hours are tested). Differences that could be chance are shown as "not reliably different". At least 15 announcements with an exact time are needed before anything is said.
- Direction: how many announcements were followed by a higher or lower price, tested the same way.
- Other news often lands in the same window. A move after an announcement is not proof the announcement caused it.